Using Time Series Analysis to Support the Water Resources Management in the Upper Basin of the Suquia River: An Observational Study

A time series analysis is a valuable tool to get information about analyzed data structures and their components, which provides a good basis for successful future predictions. This information is useful to take decisions to the best management of this resource. The region where the province of Cordoba is located is subject to strong variations in their hydrological cycles. The strong population growth experienced in the recent years in the city of Cordoba and its area of influence (Area of Greater Cordoba) with more than 1.4000.000 inhabitants, has resulted in conflicts in the uses of this resource. During the last decades have been situations of prolonged droughts and floods. The Suquia River, is the most important source of supply to the City of Cordoba and runs through the city. The prediction of the rainfall over its basin is crucial for proper management reservoir level, floods, and droughts. In this paper, a time series analysis´s study was applied as a valuable tool to get information about rainfall´s data structures and their components to provides a good basis for successful prediction future climate situations.

This study deals with the modeling and forecasting of rainfall time series in the area of upper basin of Suquia River. The series analyzed were San Antonio. El Condor, Season: El Cajon and El Barrio Station Canal. The time series models that were proposed for the analysis of each record were ARMA models. The results show that the time series analysis is a tool that offers valuable information on the characteristics pluviographs.