Drought Occurrence and Community Perceptions in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro Basin, Kenya

This study assessed drought occurrence and community views in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro basin (UENB) of Kenya. Baseline data were obtained from a review of published materials and analysis of historical weather data (monthly rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures) for a 40-year period from 1981 to 2020. Then questionnaire surveys were conducted through key informant interviews administered to government staff and other stakeholders, as well as focus group discussions with communities. A total of 187 respondents were interviewed of which 150 were community members and 37 were policy makers and other stakeholders. Typologies of respondents included small-scale farmers, pastoralists, conservancies, water user associations, government staff and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). It was found that drought is a disaster of growing concern in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro basin. In the period from 1981-2020, drought was recorded in 58% of the 40-year span. The UENB has also been experiencing increasingly hotter weather, thus aridification. Community perceptions of drought closely mirror available records on drought occurrence. About 56% of respondents relate drought to lack or shortage of rainfall, late arrival or early cessation of the rainy season and prolonged periods of dry weather. Meanwhile, 14% considered water scarcity and associated drying of water sources as the main evidence of drought. Although there are policy instruments for drought preparedness and early warning, information does not reach land users in good time. Local communities hold some indigenous knowledge of drought prediction and preparedness, but its use has been dwindling. Research gaps exist in capturing indigenous knowledge in weather forecasting, its use, and linkages with scientific methods.