Potential Driving Systems Associated with Extreme Rainfall across East Africa during October to December (OND) Season 2019

The East African (EA) region highly experiences intra-seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall amounts. This study investigates the driving factors for anomalous rainfall events observed during the season of October-November-December (OND) 2019 over the region. The study utilized daily rainfall data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data Version 2 (CHIRPSv2) and the driving systems data. Statistical spatiotemporal analysis, correlation, and composite techniques were performed to investigate the teleconnection between OND 2019 seasonal rainfall and global synoptic climate systems. The findings showed that the OND 2019 experienced seasonal rainfall that was twice or greater than its seasonal climatology and varied with location. Further, the OND 2019 rainfall showed a positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (0.81), Nino 3 (0.51), Nino 3.4 (0.47), Nino 4 (0.40), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (0.22), and North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) (0.02), while El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) showed a negative correlation (−0.30). The region was dominated by southeasterly warming and humid winds that originated from the Indian Ocean, while the geopotential height, vertical velocity, and vorticity anomalies were closely related to the anomalous rainfall characteristics. The study deduced that the IOD was the major synoptic system that influenced maximum rainfall during the peak season of OND 2019. This study therefore provided insights on the diagnosis study of OND 2019 anomalous rainfall and its attribution over the EA. The findings of the study will contribute to improvements in forecasting seasonal rainfall by regional climate centers and national meteorological centers within the region.