Estimation of the Proportion of Vulnerable Households and Its Determinants in Lampung Province in 2022

Aims: The purpose of this research to determine the profile of poverty vulnerability in Lampung Province and the factors that influence it. This is one of the efforts to achieve the ultimate goal of determining targeted policies as a preventive effort to prevent poverty from occurring in vulnerable households in Lampung Province in 2022.

Study Design: Carrying out poverty grouping then carries out testing to determine poverty vulnerability.

Place and Duration of Study: The data sources used in this study are secondary data in the form of raw data from the National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) KOR and Module for March 2022. In addition, this study also uses various other data sourced from the BPS Lampung Website and the Lampung Province Publication in Figures 2022.

Methodology: The first step is to estimate poverty vulnerability using the Vulnerability as Expected Poverty (VEP) method. The study continued by analyzing the determinants of poverty vulnerability. The analysis of vulnerability determinants was carried out using the logit regression method.

Results: Analysis of the level of vulnerability to poverty in the Lampung region shows that areas with high vulnerability, such as East Lampung, Tanggamus, and South Lampung, are influenced by various structural factors such as limited access to infrastructure and public services, minimal economic opportunities, and dependence on the agricultural sector. These factors are exacerbated by low levels of education and limited access to credit, which further worsen the economic conditions of the community. The number of household members, age of the head of household, education, gender, regional classification, access to credit, savings, employment status, and non-cash food assistance all contribute to the level of vulnerability; increasing the number of household members and the age of the head of household increase the likelihood of vulnerability, while higher education is also associated with increased risk. Male heads of households and urban areas are less likely to experience poverty vulnerability, while access to credit, savings, employment status, and non-cash food assistance can reduce the risk of poverty.

Conclusion: The government needs to prioritize infrastructure development in vulnerable areas, such as East Lampung, Tanggamus, and South Lampung, to improve connectivity and public accessibility to basic services, in line with the Lampung Provincial Government's program to improve production efficiency and regional connectivity.